通过旅行限制推迟COVID-19疫情高峰期

Q3 Mathematics Epidemiologic Methods Pub Date : 2021-02-01 DOI:10.1515/em-2020-0042

Kaare Græsbøll, L. Christiansen, U. H. Thygesen, C. Kirkeby

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引用次数: 3

摘要

目的:旅行限制是各国政府预防新冠肺炎传播的常用工具。方法:我们在这里使用一个简单的模拟模型来调查一个国家内旅行限制的潜在影响。结果:我们发现旅行限制可以显著推迟疫情高峰，但不影响国内传播。我们还调查了疫情早期或后期实施旅行限制的效果，发现快速实施对延缓疫情至关重要。结论:快速实施旅行限制对于推迟一个国家后续COVID-19疫情的高峰至关重要。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Delaying the peak of the COVID-19 epidemic with travel restrictions

Abstract Objectives: Travel restrictions is an often-used tool for governments to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Methods: We here used a simple simulation model to investigate the potential effects of travel restrictions within a country. Results: We found that travel restrictions can delay the peak of the epidemic considerably, but do not affect the spread within the country. We also investigated the effect of implementing travel restrictions early or later in the epidemic, and found that fast implementation is crucial for delaying the epidemic. Conclusions: Fast implementation of travel restrictions is crucial for delaying the peak of a subsequent outbreak of COVID-19 within a country.

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来源期刊

Epidemiologic Methods Mathematics-Applied Mathematics

CiteScore

2.10

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Epidemiologic Methods (EM) seeks contributions comparable to those of the leading epidemiologic journals, but also invites papers that may be more technical or of greater length than what has traditionally been allowed by journals in epidemiology. Applications and examples with real data to illustrate methodology are strongly encouraged but not required. Topics. genetic epidemiology, infectious disease, pharmaco-epidemiology, ecologic studies, environmental exposures, screening, surveillance, social networks, comparative effectiveness, statistical modeling, causal inference, measurement error, study design, meta-analysis