借助可视化仪表板比较流行病学模型

IF 0.3 Q4 COMPUTER SCIENCE, THEORY & METHODS Acta Universitatis Sapientiae Informatica Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI:10.2478/ausi-2020-0016
Csaba Farkas, David Iclanzan, Boróka Olteán-Péter, Géza Vekov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

2020年,由于COVID - 19大流行,各大研究中出现了各种流行病学模型[16,22,21],这些模型在复杂性、类型等方面存在差异。根据该假设,复杂模型由于考虑了更多的参数,因此比简单模型更准确,给出的结果更可靠。本文研究了三种不同的流行病学模型:SIR模型、SEIR模型和SEIR -型模型。我们的目标是建立微分方程模型,这些模型依赖于相似的参数,但是方程系统和参数数量彼此偏离。通过本研究实现了一个可视化仪表板,因此,我们不仅能够研究模型,还能够让用户了解流行病学模型复杂性之间的差异,并最终分享由微分方程定义的这些模型的更具体概述[24]。为了验证我们的结果,我们将三种模型与意大利北部和武汉的实证数据进行比较,并以COVID-19感染病例为基础。为了验证我们的结果,我们使用最小二乘优化算法计算参数的值。
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Comparing epidemiological models with the help of visualization dashboards
Abstract In 2020, due to the COVID − 19 pandemic, various epidemiological models appeared in major studies [16, 22, 21], which differ in terms of complexity, type, etc. In accordance with the hypothesis, a complex model is more accurate and gives more reliable results than a simpler one because it takes into consideration more parameters. In this paper we study three different epidemiological models: a SIR, a SEIR and a SEIR − type model. Our aim is to set up differential equation models, which rely on similar parameters, however, the systems of equation and number of parameters deviate from each other. A visualization dashboard is implemented through this study, and thus, we are able not only to study the models but also to make users understand the differences between the complexity of epidemiological models, and ultimately, to share a more specific overview about these that are defined by differential equations [24]. In order to validate our results, we make a comparison between the three models and the empirical data from Northern Italy and Wuhan, based on the infectious cases of COVID-19. To validate our results, we calculate the values of the parameters using the Least Square optimization algorithm.
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来源期刊
Acta Universitatis Sapientiae Informatica
Acta Universitatis Sapientiae Informatica COMPUTER SCIENCE, THEORY & METHODS-
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