基于多准则分析方法的项目组合管理决策支持模型

Everton Glenio Boeira Boeno, L. D. Chiwiacowsky
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引用次数: 0

摘要

项目组合的选择对组织的生存至关重要,组织必须根据广泛的信息集做出决策。因此,战略决策不能仅仅基于决策者的经验或直觉,因为它们可以反映对特定价值而不是集体价值的判断。因此,建议决策者使用科学的方法进行决策。在这种情况下,本研究旨在开发一个多标准决策模型,以及多标准分析方法的应用,这有助于那些负责管理公司项目组合的人,以确保所做的投资尽可能自信。该模型是用AHP方法创建的,用于计算标准的权重,并用PROMETHEE方法对备选方案进行排序。为了遵守这些方法所确立的方法学,必须确定标准、适当的权重和模型中项目的评价。对20个项目进行的试验取得了满意的结果。可以注意到最不吸引人的项目与最吸引人的项目之间的差异为42.21%。通过本研究可以得出结论,使用决策支持模型是非常有用的。该模型可以识别项目之间的显著差异,如果没有这种方法的支持,决策者将无法获得这些信息。有了这一点,可以理解的是,组织可以通过使用它获得显著的收益。
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Modelo de apoio a tomada de decisão na gestão de portfólio de projetos com base em uma abordagem de análise multicritério
The selection of the project portfolio is crucial for the survival of organizations, which must make decisions based on a broad set of information. As a consequence of this, strategic decisions cannot be based only on the experiences or intuitions of its decision makers, since they can reflect a judgment of particular and not collective value. Therefore, decision makers are advised to use a scientific methodology for decision making. In this context, this study aims to develop a multicriteria decision model, together with the application of a multicriteria analysis method, which assists those responsible for managing the companies' project portfolio, in order to ensure that the investment made is as assertive as possible. The model was created using the AHP method, for calculating the weight of the criteria, and the PROMETHEE method, for ranking the alternatives. To comply with the methodology established by the methods, it was necessary to define criteria, its adequate weighting and evaluation of projects in the model. The tests carried out with 20 projects brought satisfactory results. It was possible to notice the difference of 42.21% between the least attractive and most attractive projects. With this study it i s concluded that the use of a decision support model is very useful. The model can identify significant differentiations between projects and without this method of support, the decision maker would be left without this information. With this, it is understood that the organization can make significant gains with its use.
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