An invasion risk map for non-native aquatic macrophytes of the Iberian Peninsula

Freshwater systems are particularly susceptible to non-native organisms, owing to their high sensitivity to the impacts that are caused by these organisms. Species distribution models, which are based on both environmental and socio-economic variables, facilitate the identification of the most vulnerable areas for the spread of non-native species. We used MaxEnt to predict the potential distribution of 20 non-native aquatic macrophytes in the Iberian Peninsula. Some selected variables, such as the temperature seasonality and the precipitation in the driest quarter, highlight the importance of the climate on their distribution. Notably, the human influence in the territory appears as a key variable in the distribution of studied species. The model discriminated between favorable and unfavorable areas with high accuracy. We used the model to build an invasion risk map of aquatic macrophytes for the Iberian Peninsula that included results from 20 individual models. It showed that the most vulnerable areas are located near to the sea, the major rivers basins, and the high population density areas. These facts suggest the importance of the human impact on the colonization and distribution of non-native aquatic macrophytes in the Iberian Peninsula, and more precisely agricultural development during the Green Revolution at the end of the 70’s. Our work also emphasizes the utility of species distribution models for the prevention and management of biological invasions.