华南地区葡萄模型的预报能力研究:ecmwf和ncep两种初始条件的比较

IF 1.5 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 热带气象学报 Pub Date : 2020-03-28 DOI:10.16555/J.1006-8775.2020.003
Zhong Shuixin, Chen Zi-tong
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本文旨在评估欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)和国家环境预报中心(NCEP)两个全球模式(GMs)之间不同模式初始化条件(ICs)和横向边界条件对全球/区域同化与预报系统(GRAPES)对中国南方的预报精度的影响。对雨季3个月的模拟结果进行了分析,并对广东省暴雨的具体情况进行了验证。华南地区和珠三角地区均表现出较强的偏冷,珠江三角洲地区则表现出较强的偏干。特别是来自ECMWF的ic对珠三角地区的偏冷更强,结构也比NCEP更详细。总的来说,与ECMWF相比,NCEP提供了一个真实的华南地面温度。此外,NCEP初始化的GRAPES对降水位置和强度的模拟优于ECWMF。本文提出的结果可作为使用由GMs驱动的区域模式的业务数值天气预报的一般准则。
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A STUDY ON THE PREDICT ABILITY OF GRAPES MODEL OVER SOUTH CHINA: COMPARISONS BY TWO INITIALIZATION CONDITIONS BETWEEN ECMWF AND NCEP
This paper aims to assess the performances of different model initialization conditions (ICs) and lateral boundary conditions between two global models (GMs), i. e., the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), on the accuracy of the Global / Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES) forecasts for south China. A total of 3-month simulations during the rainy season were examined and a specific case of torrential rain over Guangdong Province was verified. Both ICs exhibited cold biases over south China, as well as a strong dry bias over the Pearl River Delta (PRD). In particular, the ICs from the ECMWF had a stronger cold bias over the PRD region and a more detailed structure than NCEP. In general, the NCEP provided a realistic surface temperature compared to the ECMWF over south China. Moreover, GRAPES initialized by the NCEP had better simulations of both location and intensity of precipitation than by the ECWMF. The results presented in this paper could be used as a general guideline to the operational numerical weather prediction that uses regional models driven by the GMs.
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来源期刊
热带气象学报
热带气象学报 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
1.80
自引率
8.30%
发文量
2793
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Information not localized
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