评估家庭儿童消费水平

IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Review of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-08-31 DOI:10.21686/2500-3925-2023-4-12-21
K. V. Kuznetsov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在人口结构发生变化(人口老龄化)的背景下,为了确定对商品和服务的需求,预测关键的社会经济指标,消费年龄指数的研究具有现实意义。收集消费水平资料的一个特点是对整个家庭进行调查,而不是对某一特定家庭成员进行调查。同时,应该注意到,在一个人的整个生命周期中,消费的水平和结构是不同的。研究人员最感兴趣的是评估不同世代家庭消费水平的方法。发展中国家和发达国家目前的趋势的特点是不再采用几代同宗的生活方式。因此,估计有父母家庭中儿童的消费水平是有实际意义的。研究的目的。目前,关于如何估算家庭儿童消费的计算,并没有明确的建议。与此同时,现有的方法也受到了经济学家的各种批评。需要指出的是,关于这一课题的研究大多是在20世纪末进行的。与此同时,有必要考虑到消费融资可能具有的跨国特征:医药和教育的可得性和发展。如果一个国家有社会服务,并且由国家出资提供,那么儿童的消费水平就会降低。如果家庭为社会领域提供资金,家庭中儿童的消费水平将会更高。因此,评估俄罗斯家庭中儿童的消费水平具有实际意义。材料和方法。根据俄罗斯国家统计局(Rosstat)进行的2020年家庭预算调查(HBS)的数据,选择了两个成年人和两个成年人有一个孩子的家庭。运用经典的统计分析方法,构建了各家庭群体的消费年龄谱。基于食品支出在家庭中的份额及其消费的规模效应,本文构建了基于儿童年龄的消费水平再分配的年龄估计。此外,样本量允许我们检验关于孩子出生年龄和消费水平的假设。结果。这项研究使人们有可能评估儿童在不同年龄出生时的消费水平差异。孩子出生的平均年龄决定了他/她成年后的消费水平。在父母年龄小于26岁时出生的孩子中,饮酒量最低。获得的15岁以下年龄的再分配系数高于R. Lee、E. Mason和Deaton提出的估计,这证实了俄罗斯家庭可能的消费模式。本文得出了两个关键结论。孩子出生的年龄决定了他/她未来的消费水平:24岁以下孩子的出生表明其整个成年期的消费水平相对较低。根据儿童的年龄对其消费水平所作的估计表明,在14岁以前的消费高于国外的方法,这可以用俄罗斯家庭的社会经济特征来解释。
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Assessing the Level of Consumption by Children in Households
In the context of changing the demographic structure of the population (population aging) in order to determine the demand for goods and services and predict key socio-economic indexes, consumption age indexes are of practical interest for research. A feature of collecting information on the level of consumption is the conduct of surveys for the household as a whole, and not for a specific member of the household. At the same time, it should be noted that throughout the life cycle of a person, the level and structure of consumption differ. Methods for assessing the level of consumption in households of different generations are of greatest interest on the part of researchers. Current trends in developing and developed countries are characterized by a move away from multi-generational living. Thus, estimates of the level of consumption by children in households with parents are of practical interest.The purpose of the study. At present, there are no unequivocal recommendations on how to estimate the calculation of children’s consumption in households. At the same time, the available methods have been subjected to various criticisms from economists. It should be noted that most of the research on this topic was carried out at the end of the 20th century. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account possible cross-country features of consumption financing: the availability and development of medicine and education. If social services are available and provided at the expense of the state in a country, then the level of consumption by children will be lower. If the household finances the social sphere, the level of consumption by children in households will be higher. Thus, it is of practical interest to assess the level of consumption by children in Russian households.Materials and methods. Based on data from the Household Budget Survey (HBS) for 2020 conducted by Rosstat, households consisting of two adults and two adults with one child are selected. With the help of classical methods of statistical analysis, the construction of age profiles of consumption for each group of households is carried out. Based on the share of expenditures on food in the household and the scale effect of their consumption, the paper constructs age estimates for the redistribution of the level of consumption depending on the age of children. In addition, the sample size allows us to test the hypothesis about the age of birth of the child and the level of consumption.Results. The study made it possible to assess the differences in the level of consumption by children depending on the age at which a child was born. The average age of a child’s birth determines his/her further level of consumption throughout adulthood. Consumption is lowest among children who are born when parents are less than 26 years old. The obtained redistribution coefficients for ages under 15 are higher than in the estimates proposed by R. Lee, E. Mason, and Deaton, that confirms the possible consumption patterns of Russian households.Conclusion. This article draws two key conclusions. The age at which a child is born determines his/her level of future consumption: the birth of a child under the age of 24 indicates a relatively low level of consumption throughout their adulthood. The estimates obtained for the level of consumption by children depending on their age indicate higher consumption up to 14 years of age than in foreign methods that can be explained by the socio-economic characteristics of Russian households.
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期刊介绍: The Review of Economics and Statistics is a 100-year-old general journal of applied (especially quantitative) economics. Edited at the Harvard Kennedy School, the Review has published some of the most important articles in empirical economics.
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