基于复杂网络的产业链不确定风险控制

W. Xiaoguang, Huang Youfang, Xie Yali, Zhao Xiangxiang
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本文从全新的复杂网络观点出发,抽象了产业链的拓扑结构和动态机制,阐述了产业链的网络关系形成及其特征。指出产业链具有微观、无标度等复杂网络特征。在此基础上,提出了产业链的概念体系和结构。在分析灾害危机对产业系统影响的基础上,分析了产业链抵抗随机攻击或恶意破坏的稳定性,得到了产业链在随机攻击或恶意破坏下的鲁棒性和弱点性。阐述了产业链核心企业在外部冲击下的弱势,强调了推动核心企业应对危机的重要性。本文还描述了危机下工业网络不确定性的传播和控制。利用疾病传播模型分析不确定性在产业链中的传播,度量防止危机传播的阈值,为整个产业链的稳定性提供理论依据。
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Uncertain risks control in the industrial Chain based on the complex network
From a brand new view of complex network, this paper abstracts the topological structure and dynamic mechanism of industry chain to expatiate the network relation formation and characteristics of industry chain. It points out industry chain has such characteristics of complex network as microcosm and scale-free. Therefore, the conception system and structure of industry chain are proposed. On the basis of analyzing the influence of disaster crisis on industry system, the stability to resist random attack or malicious destruction of industry chain were analyzed and the result is obtained that the robustness and weakness of industry chain under random attack or malicious destruction. The weakness of core enterprises in industry chain under external attack was stated and it is highlighted the importance of promoting core enterprises to react crisis. This paper also depicted the spread and the control of uncertainty of industry network under crisis. Disease spread model is utilized to analyze the spread of uncertainty in industry chain, measure the threshold value to prevent the spreading of crisis, as well to provide theory foundation for stability of industry chain as a whole.
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