关于疫苗接种失败的行为副作用对传染病传播影响的说明

IF 3.1 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Ecological Complexity Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI:10.1016/j.ecocom.2021.100929
G.S. Harari , L.H.A. Monteiro
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引用次数: 2

摘要

疫苗确实能拯救生命;然而,没有一种疫苗能对所有接种过疫苗的人提供完全免疫。因此,有些人仍然容易感染他们接种过疫苗的传染病。通过依赖所谓的获得性免疫,这些人可以减少自我施加的预防措施,因此,他们可以不自觉地促进感染的传播。这里,在基于常微分方程的流行病模型中考虑了这些个体。根据与传染和疫苗效力相关的参数值,与未接种疫苗的情况相比,接种疫苗后不负责任的行为可以增加疾病的基本繁殖数。考虑到目前的新冠肺炎疫情,对这一结果进行了讨论。
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A note on the impact of a behavioral side-effect of vaccine failure on the spread of a contagious disease

Vaccines do save lives; however, no vaccine provides complete immunity for all vaccinated individuals. Thus, some individuals remain susceptible to the contagious disease against which they were vaccinated. By relying on the supposed acquired immunity, these individuals can reduce the self-imposed prevention measures and, as a consequence, they can involuntarily promote the spread of the infection. Here, such individuals are taken into account in an epidemic model based on ordinary differential equations. Depending on the parameter values related to contagion and vaccine efficacy, a less responsible behavior post-vaccination can increase the basic reproduction number of the disease as compared to the case with no vaccine. This result is discussed by considering the current COVID-19 outbreak.

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来源期刊
Ecological Complexity
Ecological Complexity 环境科学-生态学
CiteScore
7.10
自引率
0.00%
发文量
24
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: Ecological Complexity is an international journal devoted to the publication of high quality, peer-reviewed articles on all aspects of biocomplexity in the environment, theoretical ecology, and special issues on topics of current interest. The scope of the journal is wide and interdisciplinary with an integrated and quantitative approach. The journal particularly encourages submission of papers that integrate natural and social processes at appropriately broad spatio-temporal scales. Ecological Complexity will publish research into the following areas: • All aspects of biocomplexity in the environment and theoretical ecology • Ecosystems and biospheres as complex adaptive systems • Self-organization of spatially extended ecosystems • Emergent properties and structures of complex ecosystems • Ecological pattern formation in space and time • The role of biophysical constraints and evolutionary attractors on species assemblages • Ecological scaling (scale invariance, scale covariance and across scale dynamics), allometry, and hierarchy theory • Ecological topology and networks • Studies towards an ecology of complex systems • Complex systems approaches for the study of dynamic human-environment interactions • Using knowledge of nonlinear phenomena to better guide policy development for adaptation strategies and mitigation to environmental change • New tools and methods for studying ecological complexity
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