沙特阿拉伯禽肉的粮食缺口和粮食安全

Maha Abdel-Fattah Saied, Momtaz Elsebaei, Rady T. Tawfik, F. Ameen
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摘要

本研究基于联合国粮食及农业组织(FAO)、环境、水和农业部、统计总局、阿拉伯农业发展组织(AOAD)和国际信息网络的二手公布数据,旨在探讨沙特王国的粮食缺口现状和禽肉的粮食安全。结果表明,自给率以统计上显著的每年1.5%的速度下降,约占研究期间年平均自给率的2.9%。这符合以每年6.3%以上的速度增加进口,超过消费增长率(4.43%)超过国内生产增长率(1.73%)的经济逻辑。表观缺口以每年约38.5万吨的统计显著速度增加,约占估计年平均缺口约543.8万吨的7.1%。对禽肉自给率影响最大的因素是进口数量和国内产量。因此,估计禽肉战略库存约为62.14万吨,足够当地消费约7个月,而粮食安全系数约为0.58,反映了王国禽肉存在相对的粮食安全。研究结果还显示了根据国家转型计划和王国2030年愿景,沙特王国实现禽肉自给自足和粮食安全所需的额外贷款和投资规模。
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The Food Gap and Food Security of Poultry Meat in Saudi Arabia
This research aimed to explore the current situation of the food gap and the food security of poultry meat in the Kingdom, based on secondary published data by the food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture, the General Authority for statistics, the Arab Organization for Agricultural Development (AOAD), and the international information Network. The results indicated a decline in self-sufficiency at a statistically significant annual rate of about 1.5%, representing about 2.9% of the annual average self-sufficiency rate during the study period. This is consistent with the economic logic in terms of increasing the volume of imports at a rate that exceeds 6.3% annually and exceeds the rate of consumption growth (4.43%) over the rate of growth of domestic production (1.73%). The apparent gap increased at an annual statistically significant rate of about 38.5 thousand tons, representing about 7.1% of the annual average gap estimated at around 543.8 thousand tons. It was also found that the most influential factors on the self-sufficiency ratio of poultry meat were the number of imports and the domestic production. Therefore, the strategic stock of poultry meat was estimated at around 621.4 thousand tons, which is sufficient for local consumption for about 7 months, while the value of the food security factor was about 0.58, reflecting the existence of relative food security of poultry meat in the Kingdom. The results of the study also showed the size of the additional loans and investments needed to achieve self-sufficiency and food security for poultry meat in the Kingdom in line with the National Transformation Program and the Kingdom's Vision 2030.
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