回复:关于“肿瘤部位对小肠腺癌预后的影响”的评论

R. Falcone, L. Strigari, L. Farina, P. Marchetti
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引用次数: 1

摘要

亲爱的编辑:感谢您对我们最近的报道和评论感兴趣为了解决过度参数化的问题,正如Weng等人所建议的,2我们假设截断p值为0.10以包括潜在的兴趣参数,因此我们从多变量分析(MVA)中排除了性别变量。MVA结果如表1所示。此外,将变量数量减少到2个因素(分期和肿瘤部位)(表2),结果再次得到证实。分期和肿瘤部位仍然是总生存期(OS)的独立预测因子。考虑到总体的小样本,为了检验模型的有效性并回答Wang等人提出的第二个问题2,我们实施了包括自助交叉验证在内的分析。为了量化模型的判别性能,我们测量了Harrell的c指数。对模型进行自举验证(1000个自举样本),计算c指数的乐观修正估计。OS模型的C-index为0.70,修正后的C-index为0.67。尽管样本很小,但我们模型的结论似乎是可靠的。我们的报告中已经提到了显著偏倚的可能性,必须谨慎考虑结果。大规模的研究是必要的。
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Response to: Comment on “Impact of tumor site on the prognosis of small bowel adenocarcinoma”
Dear Editor: We appreciate the interest in our recent report1 and the comment.2 To solve the issue of overparameterization, as suggested by Weng et al.,2 we assumed a cutoff p value of 0.10 to include potential interest parameters, thus we excluded the sex variable from the multivariate analysis (MVA). The results of the MVA are shown in Table 1. Moreover, reducing the number of variables to 2 factors (stage and tumor site) (Table 2), the results, once again, are confirmed. Stage and tumor site remain independent predictors of overall survival (OS). To test the validity of the model and answer the second question by Wang et al.,2 considering the small sample of the population, we implemented the analysis including the cross-validation with bootstrapping. To quantify the discrimination performance of the model, Harrell’s C-index was measured. The model was subjected to bootstrapping validation (1000 bootstrap resamples) to calculate the optimistic corrected estimate of C-index. The C-index for OS models was 0.70 while the corrected C-index was 0.67. Despite the small sample, the conclusions of our model seem to be robust. The potential for significant bias has already been mentioned in our report1 and the results must be considered cautiously. Large-scale studies are warranted.
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