俄罗斯技术动力结构与经济增长

Q4 Social Sciences Perspectives on Federalism Pub Date : 2020-12-15 DOI:10.21686/2073-1051-2020-4-5-25
O. Sukharev
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引用次数: 0

摘要

俄罗斯经济增长因“新冠肺炎危机”而放缓,以及恢复增长和形成新增长模式的可能性,都与克服结构性制约的必要性有关。此外,俄罗斯经济复苏计划指出,不仅需要刺激的宏观经济政策,而且还需要通过技术更新实施结构改革。然而,技术现代化高度依赖于现有的技术发展模式,即当前和未来对新技术的需求。执行该国的技术发展战略需要评估现有的技术结构,并衡量其对正在进行的支持过时技术和新技术的投资的反应。不同的经济部门和地区,拥有不同的技术和结构,表现出不同的可制造性水平,可制造性被理解为创新产品与非创新产品的数量之比。这一参数对新技术和过时技术投资的敏感性也不同,在为个别地区和整个俄罗斯制定投资和技术发展政策时不能考虑到这一点。利用结构分析和回归分析,本研究提供了俄罗斯技术型经济的结构图景。报告显示,技术现代化还涉及在部门和区域范围内调动资源,以消除发展中的结构和技术不平衡。投资政策不仅应减少到增加投资,而且还应减少到管理投资结构,同时更换旧技术,以平衡和提高整体的可制造性。这将需要解决一个有希望的问题,即提高可制造性对新技术投资的敏感性。从长远来看,这种方法将有可能挑选出区域技术发展模式,不仅根据对新旧技术的敏感性对区域进行排名,而且还可以制定一套选择性的区域政策措施。关键词:“新冠危机”,经济增长,工业化,投资,结构变化,结构动态,技术,区域经济技术有效性
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Structure of Technological Dynamics and Economic Growth of Russia
The slowdown in Russia’s economic growth to the “covid crisis”, as well as the possibility of restoring growth and forming a new model of it, are associated with the need to overcome structural constraints. Moreover, the plans for the recovery of the Russian economy note the need not only for a stimulating macroeconomic policy, but also for the implementation of structural changes through technological renewal. However, technological modernization is highly dependent on the existing mode of technological development – the current and future demand for new technologies. The implementation of the country’s technological development strategy requires an assessment of the existing technological structure with a measurement of its reaction to ongoing investments in support of obsolete and emergence of new technologies. Different sectors of the economy and its regions, having a different set of technologies and their structure, show a different level of manufacturability, which is understood as the ratio of the volume of innovative to non-innovative products. The sensitivity of this parameter to investments in new and outdated technologies is also different, which cannot be taken into account in the formation of investment and technological development policies for both individual regions and Russia as a whole. Using structural and regression analysis, this study provides a picture of the structure of the technological Russian economy. It is shown that technological modernization also involves the movement of resources in the sectoral and regional context in order to eliminate structural and technological imbalances in development. Investment policy should be reduced not only to increasing investments, but also to managing their structure in conjunction with replacing old technologies in order to level and improve the overall manufacturability. This will require solving the promising problem of increasing the sensitivity of manufacturability to investments in new technologies. In the long term, this approach will make it possible to single out the modes of regional technological development, not only ranking regions in terms of sensitivity to new and old technologies, but also developing a selective set of regional policy measures.Keywords: “covid crisis”, economic growth, industrialization, investments, structural changes, structural dynamics, technologies, technological effectiveness of the regional economy.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
0.10
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
5 weeks
期刊介绍: Perspectives on Federalism is an Open Access peer-reviewed journal, promoted by the Centre for Studies on Federalism. This initiative follows the Bibliographical Bulletin on Federalism’s success, with an average of 15000 individual visits a month. Perspectives on Federalism aims at becoming a leading journal on the subject, and an open forum for interdisciplinary debate about federalism at all levels of government: sub-national, national, and supra-national at both regional and global levels. Perspectives on Federalism is divided into three sections. Along with essays and review articles, which are common to all academic journal, it will also publish very short notes to provide information and updated comments about political, economic and legal issues in federal states, regional organizations, and international organizations at global level, whenever they are relevant to scholars of federalism. We hope scholars from around the world will contribute to this initiative, and we have provided a simple and immediate way to submit an essay, a review article or a note. Perspectives on Federalism will publish original contributions from different disciplinary viewpoints as the subject of federalism requires. Papers submitted will undergo a process of double blind review before eventually being accepted for publication.
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