二手散货船定价因素选择研究

Yun-Ok Yang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在现有船舶销售市场,价格是根据最近交易的同类船舶的价格确定的。自2008年金融危机以来,船舶价格一直在波动,船舶价格标准对于船舶的即将价值变得越来越必要。因此,本研究采用享乐价格模型来估计船舶的即将价值。在本研究中,通过各特征值对船舶价格的影响进行分析,并给出估计函数公式。从享乐价格模型提出的4个模型中,选取了方差膨胀因子和逐步选择的最优模型。为此,基于实际交易船舶和特征数据,分析了船舶价格决定因素的影响。所选模型为Log-Line模型;通过回归分析,得到DWT、船龄、市场价值、短期租船、长期租船、Enbloc、Special Survey Due和建造商8个变量对船舶价格模型的影响。该模型可为客观、均衡的船舶价格评估提供参考。
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A Study on the Selection of Pricing Factors for Used Bulk Carriers
In the existing ship sales market, prices determined based on the prices of similar ship types that recently traded. ince the 2008 financial crisis, ship prices have fluctuated, and ship price criteria have become ever more necessary to the imminent value of the ship. Therefore, this research used the hedonic price model to estimate imminent values of ships. In this study, the influence on ship prices was analyzed by the value of each characteristic and an estimated functional formula was . Out of the four models suggested by the hedonic price model, an optimal model was selected with variance inflation factors and a stepwise selection. For this, the influence of determinants of ship prices was analyzed based on actually traded ships and characteristic data. The selected model s the Log-Line model; as a result of regression analysis, eight variables, including DWT, Age, Market Value, Short-Term Charter, Long-Term Charter, Enbloc, Special Survey Due and Builder were to affect the ship price model. This model is expected to be useful for objective and balanced ship price evaluation.
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