衡量经济一体化程度的结构性方法:来自七国集团的证据。

U. Aysun
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摘要

本文通过对七国集团中每个国家分别估计一个两国DSGE模型来推断七国集团之间的经济一体化程度。在这样做时,模型中的两个经济体用一个具体国家的观察值和七国集团其他国家的相应值来表示。为了推断经济一体化程度,对模型的冲击过程进行了重新配置,使其包含每个经济体共同的组成部分,并且冲击可以从一个经济体传递到另一个经济体。通过共同冲击和外国冲击对国内变量变化的相对贡献来捕捉经济一体化程度,本文得出的推论与基于更传统的全球化衡量标准的推论不一致。根据后估计统计,数据中对贸易和资金流动更开放的国家在经济一体化方面排名较低。
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A Structural Approach to Measuring the Degree of Economic Integration: Evidence From G-7 Countries.
This paper infers the degree of economic integration amongst G-7 countries by estimating a two country DSGE model separately for each country in the group. In doing so, the two economies in the model are represented by the observations for a specific country and the corresponding values for the rest of G-7. To infer the degree of economic integration, the model's shock processes are reconfigured so that they include a component that is common for each economy and shocks can be transmitted from one economy to the other. Capturing the degree of economic integration by the relative contribution of common and foreign shocks to the variation of domestic variables, the paper draws inferences that are at odds with those based on more traditional measures of globalization. Countries that are more open to trade and financial flows in the data are ranked lower in terms of economic integration according to post-estimation statistics.
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