人文科学的规律与机制

Rui Sampaio
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引用次数: 0

摘要

根据一种有影响力的认识论传统,科学是在规律的基础上解释现象的,但最近二十年出现了一场新机械论运动,它强调基于机制的解释在科学中的基本作用,这种解释具有打开相互关系的“黑盒子”和提供对现象的真正理解的优点。机制通过引入一组新的变量,丰富了理论的经验内容,帮助我们做出在宏观层面的相关性基础上不可能做出的因果推论(由于众所周知的有关相关性不确定因果关系的问题)。然而,对机制的呼吁也有方法上的代价。它们容易受到干扰效应的影响;他们还面临着不确定的问题,因为现有的证据往往允许对相关性的潜在结构进行不同的解释;它们具有强烈的情境依赖性,它们作为因果模式的个性化可能存在争议;它们提出了特定的可测试性问题;最后,由于机制的局部特征,基于机制的推断可能会产生误导。无论如何,对机制的研究是人文科学不可缺少的一部分,它们提出的问题可以通过定量和定性的方法来控制,并且可以通过认识论上的批判性思维练习来控制。
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Laws and Mechanisms in The Human Sciences
Abstract According to an influential epistemological tradition, science explains phenomena on the basis of laws, but the last two decades have witnessed a neo-mechanistic movement that emphasizes the fundamental role of mechanism-based explanations in science, which have the virtue of opening the “black box” of correlations and of providing a genuine understanding of the phenomena. Mechanisms enrich the empirical content of a theory by introducing a new set of variables, helping us to make causal inferences that are not possible on the basis of macro-level correlations (due to well-known problems regarding the underdetermination of causation by correlation). However, the appeal to mechanisms has also a methodological price. They are vulnerable to interference effects; they also face underdetermination problems, because the available evidence often allows different interpretations of the underlying structure of a correlation; they are strongly context-dependent and their individuation as causal patterns can be controversial; they present specific testability problems; finally, mechanism-based extrapolations can be misleading due to the local character of mechanisms. At any rate, the study of mechanisms is an indispensable part of the human sciences, and the problems that they raise can be controlled by quantitative and qualitative methods, and an epistemologically informed exercise of critical thinking.
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