Horizontal inequality in the transition to upper secondary education in Spain

Effectively maintained inequality theory posits that a reduction in vertical inequality following the expansion of a level of education will be compensated by an increase in horizontal inequality. Although this theory has been intensely studied in various countries, it has barely been explored in the Spanish case. To fill this gap, I use data from the Survey on the Transition from Education/Training to Labour Market Insertion and analyse the sample of students who completed compulsory education in 2001, right after the expansion of upper secondary education (baccalaureate) in Spain. I study two forms of horizontal inequality: the type of education enrolled in (including which modality is preferred in the academic track) and the time for completion of the academic track. I report that the saturation of baccalaureate in the choice against vocational education triggered substantial inequalities in the preference for the most rewarding modalities of baccalaureate: socioeconomically advantaged students preferred the natural sciences and technology, while disadvantaged students preferred the social sciences, humanities, and arts. In turn, inequality in the time for completion of baccalaureate is mostly vertical as the two most likely results for all socioeconomic groups are to complete baccalaureate in two years or not complete it at all.