An Ex-Post Analysis of the 2004 Olympic Effect

This paper evaluates the effects of the Olympic Games of 2004 hosted in Athens on Greece’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), as estimated in Papanikos (1999). The estimates were made in 1997 for a period of fourteen years, 1998-2011, based on various scenarios. During this period two events have had a great impact on GDP that could have been predicted in 1997. Firstly, Greece adopted the euro in 2002, and even though this was pretty much a possibility in 1997, but not of course a certainty, the most important effect of the euro would have come from its exchange value vis-a-vis major currencies of countries with Greece was trading. This included tourism. Despite what many economists thought at the time, the introduction of the euro was not accompanied by a devaluation, but by unprecedented overvaluation. This had a negative impact on Greek GDP. Secondly, the Great Recession hit the Greek economy hard starting in 2008. These two effects had a negative impact on Greek GDP, wiping out the expected positive effects of the Olympic Games. Keywords: Olympic Games, GDP, Athens 2004, euro, great recession