延长干燥期对油棕产量和磨提率的影响:个案研究

The Planter Pub Date : 2021-09-25 DOI:10.56333/tp.2021.014
M. Sidhu, A. Aziz, Z. Sinuraya, M. Sharma
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引用次数: 1

摘要

根据目前的气候变化趋势,厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件可能会变得更加频繁,前者对油棕生长和生产的负面影响更为显著。自1980年以来,印度尼西亚记录了10次厄尔尼诺事件或长时间干旱期,其中3次和5次分别被列为严重和中度。三次厄尔尼诺事件中最严重的一次发生在1997年,最近的一次发生在2015年。本文是一个案例研究,研究了2015年厄尔尼诺事件对两个相邻庄园种植的两代油棕的新鲜果串(FFB)产量的影响,以及从后两个庄园接收作物的磨坊的榨油率(OER)。2015年连续4个月的低降雨量导致全年缺水280 - 313毫米,随后在厄尔尼诺事件发生后的4 - 12个月和24 - 30个月两个不同时期,FFB产量分别下降。在这两种情况下,可收获束数量的急剧下降是主要因素,可能是由于花序败育的增加和花序性别比的降低。平均束重(ABW)基本未受影响。干旱最初对年轻棕榈的影响更严重,但由于恢复速度更快,第二年12个月期间的总产量下降(23%)明显低于老棕榈(30%)。对14年的产量和气候数据的分析表明,除降雨外,其他非生物和生物因素,如果实活动,也可能对这两个庄园的3年生产周期(收成高峰、衰退、恢复、收成高峰)有影响。因此,由于其他影响因素造成的水分亏缺,很难准确地分摊产量下降。研究还表明,干旱对工厂OER有负面影响。2015年(4个月)和2019年(4个月)延长的干旱期与7至14个月后OER下降的时期始终相关。与FFB一样,这种持续下降也可能归因于多种因素。关键词:厄尔尼诺,油棕,OER,降雨,水分亏缺
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IMPACT OF PROLONGED DRY PERIOD ON OIL PALM YIELD AND MILL EXTRACTION RATIO: A CASE STUDY
Based on current trends in climate change, El Nino and La Nina events are likely to become more frequent, with the former having a more significant negative impact on oil palm growth and production. Since 1980, ten El Nino events or prolonged dry periods have been recorded in Indonesia, of which three and five events have been categorised as severe and moderate, respectively. The most severe of the three El Nino events occurred in 1997, followed by a more recent one in 2015. This paper is a case study which examines the impact of the 2015 El Nino event on the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) production of two generations of oil palms planted in two neighbouring estates and oil extraction ratios (OER) of a mill receiving crop from the latter two estates. Four consecutive months of low rainfall in 2015, resulted in annual water deficits of 280 - 313 mm, which was followed by a decline in FFB production over two distinct periods i.e. 4 to 12 months and 24 to 30 months after the El Nino event, respectively. In both cases, a sharp decline in the number of harvestable bunches was the main contributing factor, likely to be due to an increase in inflorescence abortion and lowering of inflorescence sex-ratio. Average bunch weight (ABW) generally remained unaffected. The initial impact of the drought was more severe on the younger palms, but due to a better recovery rate, the overall yield decline (23%) over a 12-month period in the following year, was significantly lower than in older palms (30%). Analysis of 14 years’ yield and climatic data showed that apart from rainfall, other abiotic and biotic factors such as fruiting activity may also be contributing to the 3-year production cycles (peak crop, decline, recovery, peak crop) exhibited by both estates. As such, it was difficult to accurately apportion yield decline primarily due to water deficit from the other influencing factors. The study also indicated a negative effect of drought on mill OER. Extended dry periods in 2015 (4 months) and 2019 (4 months) were consistently correlated with periods of declining OER, 7 to 14 months later. Like FFB, the prolonged decline could also be attributed to multiple factors. Keywords: El Nino, oil palm, OER, rainfall, water deficit.
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