Temporal trend analysis of rheumatic heart disease burden in high-income countries between 1990 and 2019.

Aims: To assesses trends in rheumatic heart disease (RHD) burden in high-income, European Union 15+ (EU15+) countries between 1990 and 2019.

Methods and results: Cross-sectional analysis of the incidence and mortality of RHD was conducted using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study database. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were extracted for EU15+ countries per sex for each of the years from 1990 to 2019, inclusive, and mortality-to-incidence indices (MII) were computed. Joinpoint regression analysis was used for the description of trends. Over 29 years, an overall declining trend in RHD incidence and mortality across EU 15+ nations were observed. There was significant variability in RHD incidence and mortality rates across high-income countries. However, both RHD incidence and mortality were higher among females compared with males across EU15+ countries over the observed period. The most recent incidence trend, starting predominantly after 2014, demonstrated a rise in RHD incidence in most countries for both sexes. The timing of this RHD resurgence corresponds temporally with an influx of migrants and refugees into Europe. The recent increasing RHD incidence rates ranged from +0.4% to +24.7% for males, and +0.6% to +11.4% for females.

Conclusion: More than half of EU15+ nations display a recent increase in RHD incidence rate across both sexes. Possible factors associated with this rise are discussed and include increase in global migration from nations with higher RHD prevalence, host nation factors such as migrants' housing conditions, healthcare access, and migrant health status on arrival.