Intransigent vs. volatile opinions in a kinetic epidemic model with imitation game dynamics.

Abstract

In the mathematical epidemiology community, there is an increasing interest in shaping the complex interplay between human behaviour and disease spreading. We give a contribution in this direction by illustrating a method to derive behavioural change epidemic models from a stochastic particle description by the means of kinetic equations. We consider a susceptible-infected-removed-like model where contact rates depend on the behavioural patterns adopted across the population. The selection of the social behaviour happens during the interactions between individuals adopting alternative strategies and it is driven by an imitation game dynamics. Agents have a double microscopic state: a discrete label, which denotes the epidemiological compartment to which they belong, and the degree of flexibility of opinion, i.e. a measure of the personal attitude to change opinion and, hence, to switch between the alternative social contact patterns. We derive kinetic evolution equations for the distribution functions of the degree of flexibility of opinion of the individuals for each compartment, whence we obtain macroscopic equations for the densities and average flexibilities of opinion. After providing the basic properties of the macroscopic model, we numerically investigate it by focusing on the impact of the flexibility of opinion on the epidemic course and on the consequent behavioural responses.