The aquaculture disease network model (AquaNet-Mod): A simulation model to evaluate disease spread and controls for the salmonid industry in England and Wales

IF 3 3区 医学 Q2 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Epidemics Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI:10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100711
James Guilder, David Ryder, Nick G.H. Taylor, Sarah R. Alewijnse, Rebecca S. Millard, Mark A. Thrush, Edmund J. Peeler, Hannah J. Tidbury
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Abstract

Infectious disease causes significant mortality in wild and farmed systems, threatening biodiversity, conservation and animal welfare, as well as food security. To mitigate impacts and inform policy, tools such as mathematical models and computer simulations are valuable for predicting the potential spread and impact of disease. This paper describes the development of the Aquaculture Disease Network Model, AquaNet-Mod, and demonstrates its application to evaluating disease epidemics and the efficacy of control, using a Viral Haemorrhagic Septicaemia (VHS) case study. AquaNet-Mod is a data-driven, stochastic, state-transition model. Disease spread can occur via four different mechanisms, i) live fish movement, ii) river based, iii) short distance mechanical and iv) distance independent mechanical. Sites transit between three disease states: susceptible, clinically infected and subclinically infected. Disease spread can be interrupted by the application of disease mitigation measures and controls such as contact tracing, culling, fallowing and surveillance. Results from a VHS case study highlight the potential for VHS to spread to 96% of sites over a 10 year time horizon if no disease controls are applied. Epidemiological impact is significantly reduced when live fish movement restrictions are placed on the most connected sites and further still, when disease controls, representative of current disease control policy in England and Wales, are applied. The importance of specific disease control measures, particularly contact tracing and disease detection rate, are also highlighted. The merit of this model for evaluation of disease spread and the efficacy of controls, in the context of policy, along with potential for further application and development of the model, for example to include economic parameters, is discussed.

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水产养殖疾病网络模型(AquaNet Mod):一个评估英格兰和威尔士沙门氏菌行业疾病传播和控制的模拟模型。
传染病在野生和养殖系统中造成严重死亡,威胁生物多样性、保护和动物福利以及粮食安全。为了减轻影响并为政策提供信息,数学模型和计算机模拟等工具对于预测疾病的潜在传播和影响很有价值。本文介绍了水产养殖疾病网络模型AquaNet Mod的发展,并通过一个病毒性出血性败血症(VHS)病例研究证明了其在评估疾病流行和控制效果方面的应用。AquaNetMod是一个数据驱动的随机状态转换模型。疾病传播可以通过四种不同的机制发生,i)活鱼运动,ii)基于河流,iii)短距离机械和iv)距离独立机械。位点在三种疾病状态之间转换:易感、临床感染和亚临床感染。疾病传播可以通过采取疾病缓解措施和控制措施来阻断,如接触者追踪、扑杀、休耕和监测。VHS病例研究的结果强调,如果不进行疾病控制,VHS在10年内有可能传播到96%的地点。当在连接最紧密的地点实施活鱼活动限制时,以及当实施代表英格兰和威尔士当前疾病控制政策的疾病控制时,流行病学影响显著降低。还强调了具体疾病控制措施的重要性,特别是接触者追踪和疾病检测率。讨论了该模型在政策背景下评估疾病传播和控制效果的优点,以及该模型进一步应用和发展的潜力,例如包括经济参数。
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来源期刊
Epidemics
Epidemics INFECTIOUS DISEASES-
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
7.90%
发文量
92
审稿时长
140 days
期刊介绍: Epidemics publishes papers on infectious disease dynamics in the broadest sense. Its scope covers both within-host dynamics of infectious agents and dynamics at the population level, particularly the interaction between the two. Areas of emphasis include: spread, transmission, persistence, implications and population dynamics of infectious diseases; population and public health as well as policy aspects of control and prevention; dynamics at the individual level; interaction with the environment, ecology and evolution of infectious diseases, as well as population genetics of infectious agents.
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