Estimation of eyewitness error rates in fair and biased lineups.

IF 2.4 2区社会学 Q1 LAW Law and Human Behavior Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI:10.1037/lhb0000538

Ryan J Fitzgerald, Colin G Tredoux, Stefana Juncu

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objective: The risk of mistaken identification for innocent suspects in lineups can be estimated by correcting the overall error rate by the number of people in the lineup. We compared this nominal size correction to a new effective size correction, which adjusts the error rate for the number of plausible lineup members.

Hypotheses: We hypothesized that (a) increasing lineup bias would increase misidentifications of a designated innocent suspect; (b) with the effective size correction, increasing lineup bias would also increase the estimate of innocent-suspect misidentifications; and (c) with the nominal size correction, lineup bias would have no effect on the estimate of innocent-suspect misidentifications.

Method: In a reanalysis of previous literature, we obtained 10 data sets from Open Science Framework. In three new experiments (Ns = 686, 405, and 1,531, respectively), participants observed a staged crime and completed a fair or biased lineup.

Results: In the reanalysis of previous literature, less than four of six lineup members were identified frequently enough to be classified as plausible, M = 3.78, 95% confidence interval [CI: 2.20, 5.36]. In the new experiments, increasing lineup bias increased mistaken identifications of a designated innocent suspect, odds ratio (OR) = 5.50, 95% CI [2.77, 10.95] and also increased the effective size-corrected estimate of innocent-suspect misidentifications, OR = 3.04, 95% CI [2.13, 4.33]. With the nominal size correction, lineup bias had no effect on the estimate of innocent-suspect misidentifications, OR = 0.84, 95% CI [0.60, 1.18].

Conclusions: Most lineups include a combination of plausible and implausible lineup members. Contrary to the nominal size correction, which ignores implausible lineup members, the effective size correction is sensitive to implausible lineup members and accounts for lineup bias when estimating the risk of innocent suspect misidentifications. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

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在公平和有偏见的阵容中目击者错误率的估计。

目的:利用队列人数对整体错误率进行修正，估算队列中无辜嫌疑人的错认风险。我们将这种名义尺寸校正与新的有效尺寸校正进行了比较，该校正调整了合理阵容成员数量的错误率。假设:我们假设:(a)增加阵容偏见会增加对指定无辜嫌疑人的错误识别;(b)在有效大小修正下，阵容偏差的增加也会增加无辜-嫌疑人误认的估计;(c)在名义尺寸校正下，阵容偏差对无辜-嫌疑人误认的估计没有影响。方法:通过对先前文献的再分析，我们从开放科学框架中获得了10个数据集。在三个新的实验中(Ns分别为686、405和1531)，参与者观察了一场上演的犯罪，并完成了公平或有偏见的列队。结果:在先前文献的再分析中，6个阵容成员中只有不到4个被频繁识别到足以归类为可信的，M = 3.78, 95%置信区间[CI: 2.20, 5.36]。在新的实验中，阵容偏倚的增加增加了对指定无辜嫌疑人的错误识别，比值比(OR) = 5.50, 95% CI[2.77, 10.95]，也增加了对无辜嫌疑人错误识别的有效大小校正估计，OR = 3.04, 95% CI[2.13, 4.33]。通过名义大小校正，队列偏差对无辜-嫌疑人误认的估计没有影响，OR = 0.84, 95% CI[0.60, 1.18]。结论:大多数阵容包括可信和不可信的阵容成员的组合。与忽略不可信阵容成员的名义规模修正相反，有效规模修正对不可信阵容成员敏感，并在估计无辜嫌疑人误认风险时考虑阵容偏差。(PsycInfo数据库记录(c) 2023 APA，版权所有)。

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来源期刊

Law and Human Behavior Multiple-

CiteScore

4.50

自引率

8.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Law and Human Behavior, the official journal of the American Psychology-Law Society/Division 41 of the American Psychological Association, is a multidisciplinary forum for the publication of articles and discussions of issues arising out of the relationships between human behavior and the law, our legal system, and the legal process. This journal publishes original research, reviews of past research, and theoretical studies from professionals in criminal justice, law, psychology, sociology, psychiatry, political science, education, communication, and other areas germane to the field.