Age-differentiated incentives for adaptive behavior during epidemics produce oscillatory and chaotic dynamics.

IF 4.3 2区生物学 PLoS Computational Biology Pub Date : 2023-09-05 eCollection Date: 2023-09-01 DOI:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011217

Ronan F Arthur, May Levin, Alexandre Labrogere, Marcus W Feldman

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Heterogeneity in contact patterns, mortality rates, and transmissibility among and between different age classes can have significant effects on epidemic outcomes. Adaptive behavior in response to the spread of an infectious pathogen may give rise to complex epidemiological dynamics. Here we model an infectious disease in which adaptive behavior incentives, and mortality rates, can vary between two and three age classes. The model indicates that age-dependent variability in infection aversion can produce more complex epidemic dynamics at lower levels of pathogen transmissibility and that those at less risk of infection can still drive complexity in the dynamics of those at higher risk of infection. Policymakers should consider the interdependence of such heterogeneous groups when making decisions.

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流行病期间对适应行为的年龄差异激励产生振荡和混乱的动力学。

不同年龄段之间的接触模式、死亡率和传播性的异质性会对流行病的结果产生重大影响。应对传染性病原体传播的适应性行为可能会产生复杂的流行病学动态。在这里，我们对一种传染病进行了建模，其中适应性行为激励和死亡率可能在两到三个年龄段之间变化。该模型表明，感染厌恶的年龄依赖性变异性可以在病原体传播性较低的水平上产生更复杂的流行病动态，而感染风险较低的人群仍然可以推动感染风险较高人群动态的复杂性。决策者在做出决策时应该考虑到这些异质群体的相互依存性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

PLoS Computational Biology 生物-生化研究方法

CiteScore

7.10

自引率

4.70%

发文量

820

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