Managing uncertainty in forecasting health workforce demand using the Robust Workforce Planning Framework: the example of midwives in Belgium.

IF 4.3 3区 材料科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC ACS Applied Electronic Materials Pub Date : 2023-09-18 DOI:10.1186/s12960-023-00861-1
Nadia Benahmed, Mélanie Lefèvre, Sabine Stordeur
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Abstract

Background: In Belgium, the Planning Commission for Medical Supply is responsible for monitoring human resources for health (HRH) and ultimately proposing workforce quotas. It is supported by the Planning Unit for the Supply of the Health Professions. This Unit quantifies and forecasts the workforce in the healthcare professions on the basis of a stock and flow model, based on trends observed in the past. In 2019, the Planning Unit asked the KCE (Belgian Health Care Knowledge Centre) to develop additional forecasting scenarios for the midwifery workforce, to complement the standard historical trend approach. The aim of this paper is to present the development of such forecasting scenarios.

Methods: The Robust Workforce Planning Framework, developed by the Centre for Workforce Intelligence in the UK was used to develop alternative midwifery workforce scenarios. The framework consists of four steps (Horizon scanning, Scenario generation, Workforce modelling, and Policy analysis), the first two of which were undertaken by KCE, using two online surveys and five workshops with stakeholders.

Results: Three alternative scenarios are proposed. The first scenario (close to the current situation) envisages pregnancy and maternity care centred on gynaecologists working either in a hospital or in private practice. The second scenario describes an organisation of midwife-led care in hospitals. In the third scenario, care is primarily organised by primary care practitioners (midwives and general practitioners) in outpatient settings.

Conclusions: The Robust Workforce Planning Framework provides an opportunity to adjust the modelling of the health workforce and inform decision-makers about the impact of their future decisions on the health workforce.

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使用稳健的劳动力规划框架管理预测卫生劳动力需求的不确定性:以比利时助产士为例。
背景:在比利时,医疗供应规划委员会负责监测卫生人力资源,并最终提出劳动力配额。它得到卫生专业供应规划股的支持。该单位根据过去观察到的趋势,根据存量和流量模型,对医疗保健行业的劳动力进行量化和预测。2019年,规划部门要求比利时卫生保健知识中心(KCE)为助产士制定额外的预测方案,以补充标准的历史趋势方法。本文的目的是介绍这种预测情景的发展。方法:英国劳动力情报中心制定的稳健劳动力规划框架用于制定替代助产劳动力情景。该框架由四个步骤组成(地平线扫描、情景生成、劳动力建模和政策分析),前两个步骤由KCE进行,使用了两次在线调查和五次与利益相关者的研讨会。结果:提出了三种备选方案。第一种情况(接近目前的情况)设想以在医院或私人诊所工作的妇科医生为中心进行妊娠和产妇护理。第二个场景描述了医院由助产士主导的护理组织。在第三种情况下,护理主要由门诊环境中的初级保健从业者(助产士和全科医生)组织。结论:稳健的劳动力规划框架提供了一个调整卫生劳动力模型的机会,并告知决策者他们未来的决策对卫生劳动力的影响。
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7.20
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4.30%
发文量
567
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