Predicting soil erosion potential under CMIP6 climate change scenarios in the Chini Lake Basin, Malaysia.

IF 4 3区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Geoscience Letters Pub Date : 2023-01-01 Epub Date: 2023-01-04 DOI:10.1186/s40562-022-00254-7

Muhammad Rendana, Wan Mohd Razi Idris, Sahibin Abdul Rahim, Zulfahmi Ali Rahman, Tukimat Lihan

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Abstract

Climate change and soil erosion are very associated with environmental defiance which affects the life sustainability of humans. However, the potency effects of both events in tropical regions are arduous to be estimated due to atmospheric conditions and unsustainable land use management. Therefore, several models can be used to predict the impacts of distinct climate scenarios on human and environmental relationships. In this study, we aimed to predict current and future soil erosion potential in the Chini Lake Basin, Malaysia under different Climate Model Intercomparison Project-6 (CMIP6) scenarios (e.g., SSP2.6, SSP4.5, and SSP8.5). Our results found the predicted mean soil erosion values for the baseline scenario (2019-2021) was around 50.42 t/ha year. The mining areas recorded the highest soil erosion values located in the southeastern part. The high future soil erosion values (36.15 t/ha year) were obtained for SSP4.5 during 2060-2080. Whilst, the lowest values (33.30 t/ha year) were obtained for SSP2.6 during 2040-2060. According to CMIP6, the future soil erosion potential in the study area would reduce by approximately 33.9% compared to the baseline year (2019-2021). The rainfall erosivity factor majorly affected soil erosion potential in the study area. The output of the study will contribute to achieving the United Nations' 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

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预测马来西亚奇尼湖盆地在 CMIP6 气候变化情景下的土壤侵蚀潜力。

气候变化和水土流失与影响人类生命可持续性的环境破坏密切相关。然而，由于大气条件和不可持续的土地利用管理，这两种事件在热带地区的潜在影响难以估计。因此，可以使用多种模型来预测不同气候情景对人类和环境关系的影响。在本研究中，我们旨在预测马来西亚奇尼湖流域在不同气候模式相互比较项目-6（CMIP6）情景（如 SSP2.6、SSP4.5 和 SSP8.5）下当前和未来的土壤侵蚀潜力。结果发现，基线情景（2019-2021 年）的预测平均土壤侵蚀值约为每年 50.42 吨/公顷。位于东南部的矿区土壤侵蚀值最高。2060-2080 年期间，SSP4.5 的未来土壤侵蚀值较高（36.15 吨/公顷年）。而 2040-2060 年期间，SSP2.6 的土壤侵蚀值最低（33.30 吨/公顷年）。根据 CMIP6，与基准年（2019-2021 年）相比，研究区域未来的土壤侵蚀潜力将减少约 33.9%。降雨侵蚀因子是影响研究区域土壤侵蚀潜力的主要因素。本研究的成果将有助于实现联合国 2030 年可持续发展议程。

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来源期刊

Geoscience Letters Earth and Planetary Sciences-General Earth and Planetary Sciences

CiteScore

4.90

自引率

2.50%

发文量

审稿时长

25 weeks

期刊介绍： Geoscience Letters is the official journal of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society, and a fully open access journal published under the SpringerOpen brand. The journal publishes original, innovative and timely research letter articles and concise reviews on studies of the Earth and its environment, the planetary and space sciences. Contributions reflect the eight scientific sections of the AOGS: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeosciences, Hydrological Sciences, Interdisciplinary Geosciences, Ocean Sciences, Planetary Sciences, Solar and Terrestrial Sciences, and Solid Earth Sciences. Geoscience Letters focuses on cutting-edge fundamental and applied research in the broad field of the geosciences, including the applications of geoscience research to societal problems. This journal is Open Access, providing rapid electronic publication of high-quality, peer-reviewed scientific contributions.