Predictors and differences in fertility level among Nigerian women of reproductive age: a function of subgroup social norms fertility behaviour.

Abstract

Fertility rates in Nigeria are declining at such a modest rate, that if more proactive measures are not employed to reduce fertility, the nation may double its population before long. We empirically examined fertility behaviour as derivatives of specific subgroup social norms, and the variations in the factors responsible for different fertility behaviours, using the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. Descriptive bivariate, and multinomial logistic regression analyses were used to predict the contribution of demographic and sociocultural factors contributing to the fertility level, and findings were reported as odds ratios. Results revealed that age, religion and level of education are the most significant predictors of fertility level, with remarkable differences in birth rate across subgroups, whereas North-West Nigeria had the highest fertility level. Furthermore, marriage had a significantly negative effect on high fertility among North-Western women, whereas higher education significantly increased high fertility among North-Eastern women. In conclusion, subgroup social norms fertility behaviour is responsible for the persistent fertility differential outcome in Nigeria. Thus, the paper strongly advocates the need to intensify community-led, norm-based solution and not a universal approach in addressing fertility control in Nigeria.