Alyson A van Raalte, Ugofilippo Basellini, Carlo Giovanni Camarda, Marília R Nepomuceno, Mikko Myrskylä
{"title":"The Dangers of Drawing Cohort Profiles From Period Data: A Research Note.","authors":"Alyson A van Raalte, Ugofilippo Basellini, Carlo Giovanni Camarda, Marília R Nepomuceno, Mikko Myrskylä","doi":"10.1215/00703370-11067917","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Drawing cohort profiles and cohort forecasts from grids of age-period data is common practice in demography. In this research note, we (1) show how demographic measures artificially fluctuate when calculated from the diagonals of age-period rates because of timing and cohort-size bias, (2) estimate the magnitude of these biases, and (3) illustrate how prediction intervals for cohort indicators of mortality may become implausible when drawn from Lee-Carter methods and age-period grids. These biases are surprisingly large, even when the cohort profiles are created from single-age, single-year period data. The danger is that we overinterpret deviations from expected trends that were induced by our own data manipulation.</p>","PeriodicalId":48394,"journal":{"name":"Demography","volume":" ","pages":"1689-1698"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10843689/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Demography","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-11067917","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"DEMOGRAPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
Drawing cohort profiles and cohort forecasts from grids of age-period data is common practice in demography. In this research note, we (1) show how demographic measures artificially fluctuate when calculated from the diagonals of age-period rates because of timing and cohort-size bias, (2) estimate the magnitude of these biases, and (3) illustrate how prediction intervals for cohort indicators of mortality may become implausible when drawn from Lee-Carter methods and age-period grids. These biases are surprisingly large, even when the cohort profiles are created from single-age, single-year period data. The danger is that we overinterpret deviations from expected trends that were induced by our own data manipulation.
期刊介绍：
Since its founding in 1964, the journal Demography has mirrored the vitality, diversity, high intellectual standard and wide impact of the field on which it reports. Demography presents the highest quality original research of scholars in a broad range of disciplines, including anthropology, biology, economics, geography, history, psychology, public health, sociology, and statistics. The journal encompasses a wide variety of methodological approaches to population research. Its geographic focus is global, with articles addressing demographic matters from around the planet. Its temporal scope is broad, as represented by research that explores demographic phenomena spanning the ages from the past to the present, and reaching toward the future. Authors whose work is published in Demography benefit from the wide audience of population scientists their research will reach. Also in 2011 Demography remains the most cited journal among population studies and demographic periodicals. Published bimonthly, Demography is the flagship journal of the Population Association of America, reaching the membership of one of the largest professional demographic associations in the world.
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