Federico Fioravanti, Fernando Delbianco, Fernando Tohmé
{"title":"The relative importance of ability, luck and motivation in team sports: a Bayesian model of performance in the English Rugby Premiership.","authors":"Federico Fioravanti, Fernando Delbianco, Fernando Tohmé","doi":"10.1007/s10260-022-00677-8","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Results in contact sports like Rugby are mainly interpreted in terms of the ability and/or luck of teams. But this neglects the important role of the <i>motivation</i> of players, reflected in the effort exerted in the game. Here we present a Bayesian hierarchical model to infer the main features that explain score differences in rugby matches of the English Premiership Rugby 2020/2021 season. The main result is that, indeed, <i>effort</i> (seen as a ratio between the number of tries and the scoring kick attempts) is highly relevant to explain outcomes in those matches.</p>","PeriodicalId":74868,"journal":{"name":"","volume":" ","pages":"1-17"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9734849/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10260-022-00677-8","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Results in contact sports like Rugby are mainly interpreted in terms of the ability and/or luck of teams. But this neglects the important role of the motivation of players, reflected in the effort exerted in the game. Here we present a Bayesian hierarchical model to infer the main features that explain score differences in rugby matches of the English Premiership Rugby 2020/2021 season. The main result is that, indeed, effort (seen as a ratio between the number of tries and the scoring kick attempts) is highly relevant to explain outcomes in those matches.
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