Evolution and Reproducibility of Simulation Modeling in Epidemiology and Health Policy Over Half a Century.

IF 5.2 2区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Epidemiologic Reviews Pub Date : 2022-01-14 DOI:10.1093/epirev/mxab006
Mohammad S Jalali, Catherine DiGennaro, Abby Guitar, Karen Lew, Hazhir Rahmandad
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引用次数: 11

Abstract

Simulation models are increasingly being used to inform epidemiologic studies and health policy, yet there is great variation in their transparency and reproducibility. In this review, we provide an overview of applications of simulation models in health policy and epidemiology, analyze the use of best reporting practices, and assess the reproducibility of the models using predefined, categorical criteria. We identified and analyzed 1,613 applicable articles and found exponential growth in the number of studies over the past half century, with the highest growth in dynamic modeling approaches. The largest subset of studies focused on disease policy models (70%), within which pathological conditions, viral diseases, neoplasms, and cardiovascular diseases account for one-third of the articles. Model details were not reported in almost half of the studies. We also provide in-depth analysis of modeling best practices, reporting quality and reproducibility of models for a subset of 100 articles (50 highly cited and 50 randomly selected from the remaining articles). Only 7 of 26 in-depth evaluation criteria were satisfied by more than 80% of samples. We identify areas for increased application of simulation modeling and opportunities to enhance the rigor and documentation in the conduct and reporting of simulation modeling in epidemiology and health policy.

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半个世纪以来流行病学和卫生政策模拟模型的演变和可重复性。
模拟模型越来越多地被用于流行病学研究和卫生政策,但其透明度和可重复性差异很大。在这篇综述中,我们概述了模拟模型在卫生政策和流行病学中的应用,分析了最佳报告实践的使用,并使用预定义的分类标准评估了模型的可重复性。我们确定并分析了1,613篇适用的文章,发现在过去的半个世纪里,研究数量呈指数增长,其中动态建模方法的增长最快。最大的研究子集集中在疾病政策模型上(70%),其中病理状况、病毒性疾病、肿瘤和心血管疾病占文章的三分之一。几乎一半的研究没有报告模型细节。我们还为100篇文章的子集(50篇被高度引用的文章和50篇随机选择的文章)提供建模最佳实践、报告质量和模型可重复性的深入分析。在26项深度评价标准中,只有7项的样本满意率超过80%。我们确定了增加模拟建模应用的领域,以及在流行病学和卫生政策模拟建模的实施和报告中加强严谨性和文件记录的机会。
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来源期刊
Epidemiologic Reviews
Epidemiologic Reviews 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生
CiteScore
8.10
自引率
0.00%
发文量
10
期刊介绍: Epidemiologic Reviews is a leading review journal in public health. Published once a year, issues collect review articles on a particular subject. Recent issues have focused on The Obesity Epidemic, Epidemiologic Research on Health Disparities, and Epidemiologic Approaches to Global Health.
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