{"title":"Ecosystem CO2 Exchange and Its Economic Implications in Northern Permafrost Regions in the 21st Century","authors":"Cuicui Mu, Xiaoxiao Mo, Yuan Qiao, Yating Chen, Yuguo Wei, Mei Mu, Jinyue Song, Zhilong Li, Wenxin Zhang, Xiaoqing Peng, Guofei Zhang, Qianlai Zhuang, Mika Aurela","doi":"10.1029/2023GB007750","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate warming increases carbon assimilation by plant growth and also accelerates permafrost CO<sub>2</sub> emissions; however, the overall ecosystem CO<sub>2</sub> balance in permafrost regions and its economic impacts remain largely unknown. Here we synthesize in situ measurements of net ecosystem CO<sub>2</sub> exchange to assess current and future carbon budgets across the northern permafrost regions using the random forest model and calculate their economic implications under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) based on the PAGE-ICE model. We estimate a contemporary CO<sub>2</sub> emission of 1,539 Tg C during the nongrowing season and CO<sub>2</sub> uptake of 2,330 Tg C during the growing season, respectively. Air temperature and precipitation exert the most control over the net ecosystem exchange in the nongrowing season, while leaf area index plays a more important role in the growing season. This region will probably shift to a carbon source after 2,057 under SSP5-8.5, with a net emission of 17 Pg C during 2057–2100. The net economic benefits of CO<sub>2</sub> budget will be $4.5, $5.0, and $2.9 trillion under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Our results imply that a high-emission pathway will greatly reduce the economic benefit of carbon assimilation in northern permafrost regions.</p>","PeriodicalId":12729,"journal":{"name":"Global Biogeochemical Cycles","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.4000,"publicationDate":"2023-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Global Biogeochemical Cycles","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GB007750","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Climate warming increases carbon assimilation by plant growth and also accelerates permafrost CO2 emissions; however, the overall ecosystem CO2 balance in permafrost regions and its economic impacts remain largely unknown. Here we synthesize in situ measurements of net ecosystem CO2 exchange to assess current and future carbon budgets across the northern permafrost regions using the random forest model and calculate their economic implications under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) based on the PAGE-ICE model. We estimate a contemporary CO2 emission of 1,539 Tg C during the nongrowing season and CO2 uptake of 2,330 Tg C during the growing season, respectively. Air temperature and precipitation exert the most control over the net ecosystem exchange in the nongrowing season, while leaf area index plays a more important role in the growing season. This region will probably shift to a carbon source after 2,057 under SSP5-8.5, with a net emission of 17 Pg C during 2057–2100. The net economic benefits of CO2 budget will be $4.5, $5.0, and $2.9 trillion under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Our results imply that a high-emission pathway will greatly reduce the economic benefit of carbon assimilation in northern permafrost regions.
期刊介绍:
Global Biogeochemical Cycles (GBC) features research on regional to global biogeochemical interactions, as well as more local studies that demonstrate fundamental implications for biogeochemical processing at regional or global scales. Published papers draw on a wide array of methods and knowledge and extend in time from the deep geologic past to recent historical and potential future interactions. This broad scope includes studies that elucidate human activities as interactive components of biogeochemical cycles and physical Earth Systems including climate. Authors are required to make their work accessible to a broad interdisciplinary range of scientists.