{"title":"Hysteresis in unemployment: Evidence from OECD estimates of the natural rate","authors":"Laurence Ball, Joern Onken","doi":"10.1111/infi.12424","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper studies the dynamics of unemployment (<i>u</i>) and its natural rate (<i>u</i>*), with <i>u</i>* measured by real-time estimates for 29 countries from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. We find strong evidence of hysteresis: an innovation in <i>u</i> causes <i>u</i>* to change in the same direction, and therefore has permanent effects. For our baseline specification, a one-percentage-point deviation of <i>u</i> from <i>u</i>* for 1 year has a long-run effect of 0.16 points on both variables. When we allow asymmetry, we find, perhaps surprisingly, that decreases in <i>u</i> have larger long-run effects than increases in <i>u</i>.</p>","PeriodicalId":1,"journal":{"name":"Accounts of Chemical Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":16.4000,"publicationDate":"2022-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Accounts of Chemical Research","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/infi.12424","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"化学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This paper studies the dynamics of unemployment (u) and its natural rate (u*), with u* measured by real-time estimates for 29 countries from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. We find strong evidence of hysteresis: an innovation in u causes u* to change in the same direction, and therefore has permanent effects. For our baseline specification, a one-percentage-point deviation of u from u* for 1 year has a long-run effect of 0.16 points on both variables. When we allow asymmetry, we find, perhaps surprisingly, that decreases in u have larger long-run effects than increases in u.
期刊介绍：
Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance.
Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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