Casualty Risk Analysis for Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems Operations

Abstract

This paper offers an alternative Casualty Area assessment. This parameter appears in all flying vehicles risk evaluation. This work arises from the intention of contributing to the subject of risk assessment in aviation. All the formulations of the Casualty Area — which will be analyzed in this paper — are tailored for debris with high kinetic energies. These models lead to an overestimation of the risk associated with small drones flight, preventing both their use and the implied operational benefits. The proposed version tailors the small Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems (commonly known as drones) falling under the A2 European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) category, C2 class [European Aviation Safety Agency, Civil drones (Unmanned aircraft, 2018), https://www.easa.europa.eu/easa-and-you/civil-drones-rpas , accessed November (2019)], i.e. drones with a mass up to 4 kg. To obtain the new formulation, the authors started with the most used formula, proposed by Montgomery [R. M. Montgomery and J. A. Ward, Casualty Areas from Impacting Inert Debris for People in the Open (Research Triangle Institute, 1995)], used by FAA (Federal Aviation Administration, [Range Safety Group, Common Risk Criteria for National Test Ranges Inert Debris (Range Commanders Council, 2000)] and [Range Safety Group, Common Risk Criteria Standards for National Test Ranges (Range Commanders Council, 2010)]), adopting new hypotheses but following the same process. The results allow a risk formulation more suitable for drones of the above-mentioned size [Range Safety Group, Range Safety Criteria For Unmanned Air Vehicles Supplement (Range Commanders Council, 1999)]. The proposed formulation can be of use for specific regulatory issues. As a matter of fact, many services use small drones: aerial photography during public assemblies, concerts, sporting events, home deliveries, buildings thermal evaluation, to name just a few. The implementation of the present results allows a wider series of operations previously restricted due to the estimation of an incompatible level of risk. In fact, with the new formulation of the Casualty Area, the level of risk is safely lowered, mainly addressing the small dimension drones [European Aviation Safety Agency, Civil drones (Unmanned aircraft), https://www.easa.europa.eu/easa-and-you/civil-drones-rpas , Online accessed November (2019)]. The steps leading to the final formulation derive from a comprehensive analysis, coherent with the guidelines set by FAA and EASA.