Knight's Move: Brazil's future in BRICS+

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to predict and evaluate the scale and effectiveness of the key political and economic instruments of the largest Latin American country – Brazil – when expanding the membership of the BRICS integration association member states. In the context of the growing confrontation provoked by the hostile rhetoric of the West, the configuration of the world order is undergoing an unprecedented transformation: the developed world largely acts as a catch-up to developing countries, as evidenced by the potential of BRICS+. The article identifies and analyzes three constants of the "tropical giant" foreign policy in BRICS+: cooperation with Moscow, recognition of the need to expand the membership of the association, as well as the consensus of local political elites regarding the development of BRICS+ according to the scenario of "integration of integrations". Along with the similarities in the attitudes of Brazil's foreign policy, the association also emphasizes the dichotomy in the approaches of the current and potential administrations: governments lobby for different agendas, take opposite positions on the future of BRICS+, and also focus on promoting bilateral relations with two different countries: in one case, with China, in the other, with India. Considering the future of BRICS+ from the economic point of view, the author pays special attention to the dilemma of developing criteria for those wishing to join the association and proposes the concept of "three barriers": the establishment of low, medium or high barriers to entry into the BRICS market. In conclusion, the article analyzes the meaning of the title of the work "knight's move": the author comes to the conclusion that Brazil will emerge victorious from any political and economic scenario described in the article. Finally, special attention is paid to the harsh historical lessons that the "tropical giant" has learned: having destroyed the two-hundred-year-old web of political and debt dependence on its northern neighbor, Brazil should become the country that will make the decisive move and complete the chess game against the West.