Cointegration and Adjustment in the Infinite Order CVAR Representation of Some Partially Observed CVAR(1) Models

S. Johansen
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Abstract

A multivariate CVAR(1) model for some observed variables and some unobserved variables is analysed using its infinite order CVAR representation of the observations. Cointegration and adjustment coefficients in the infinite order CVAR are found as functions of the parameters in the CVAR(1) model. Conditions for weak exogeneity of the cointegrating vectors in the approximating finite order CVAR are derived. The results are illustrated by a few simple examples of relevance for modelling causal graphs.
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部分观测CVAR(1)模型无限阶CVAR表示中的协整与平差
利用观测值的无限阶CVAR表示,对一些观测变量和一些未观测变量的多元CVAR(1)模型进行了分析。得到无限阶CVAR的协整系数和调整系数是CVAR(1)模型参数的函数。导出了近似有限阶CVAR中协整向量弱外生性的条件。通过几个简单的因果图建模相关的例子说明了结果。
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