PREDICTING THE RISK OF AGGRESSIVE RECIDIVISM A CRIMINOLOGICAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE

Abstract

Aggressive delinquency is recognized as a one of the most serious threats for the society. Although criminal violence is often considered in the fi eld of criminology, the issues of recurrence of criminal violence are less often undertaken. The article focuses on that important area of interest in criminology, including risk assessment for recurrence of criminal violence in particular. Changes in the penal policy as well as the main assumptions of risk assessment approach were characterised from dual perspective – criminology and forensic psychology. Moreover, the risk factors and protective factors model, diagnostic methods and current directions for predicting violent recidivism were discussed. Besides, threat of criminal aggression was revealed at a broad, social context, including the problem of the “dark number of crimes”. Limitations connected with measuring extent of recurrent aggressive delinquency were also discussed. At the end of the review, authors presented theoretical model included key factors infl uencing at the general level of criminal violence treat. This model consists of four categories: 1) institutions and the legal rules, 2) professional risk assessment, 3) effectiveness of former prisoners adaptation in society, 4) social perception and social attitudes toward risk of harm caused by aggressive crime. Presented article might be useful in discussion around the issue of effective criminal violence prevention.