Climate Change Impacts on Energy Generation from Renewable Energies in the Island of Crete, Greece

JOHNJohn VOURDOUBASVourdoubas
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Abstract

Renewable energies are expected to have a central role in the future zero carbon economy. However, their energy potential is affected by climate change. The current work investigates the future impacts of climate change on the energy potential of several renewable energies including solar energy, wind energy, biomass and hydro energy in the island of Crete, Greece. Previous research worldwide has indicated that climate change is going to affect positively or negatively the potential of various renewable energies while the impacts are different in various geographical areas. The goal of the current study is the evaluation of the impacts of climate change on the energy potential of solar energy, wind energy, hydro energy and biomass in the island of Crete. Our results indicated that climate change during 21th century is expected to increase the solar energy potential in Crete by around 4% while the wind energy potential is going to decrease by 6-12%. A slight decrease in annual precipitation in the island is foreseen while the agriculture and forest-related solid biomass potential is expected to decrease due to more frequent forest fires, more droughts and land desertification. Climate change is not going to affect significantly the potential of the rich solar and wind energy resources in Crete. The findings of the present study could be useful in sizing the new renewable energy systems in Crete which are required to generate the “carbon-free energy” in the emerging “zero-carbon economy” by 2050.
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气候变化对希腊克里特岛可再生能源发电的影响
可再生能源有望在未来的零碳经济中发挥核心作用。然而,它们的能源潜力受到气候变化的影响。目前的工作调查了气候变化对希腊克里特岛几种可再生能源的能源潜力的未来影响,包括太阳能、风能、生物质能和水能。以往世界范围内的研究表明,气候变化将对各种可再生能源的潜力产生积极或消极的影响,而影响在不同的地理区域是不同的。本研究的目的是评价气候变化对克里特岛太阳能、风能、水能和生物质的能源潜力的影响。我们的研究结果表明,21世纪的气候变化预计将使克里特岛的太阳能潜力增加约4%,而风能潜力将减少6-12%。预计该岛的年降水量将略有减少,而与农业和森林有关的固体生物量潜力将由于森林火灾更频繁、干旱和土地沙漠化更严重而减少。气候变化不会显著影响克里特岛丰富的太阳能和风能资源的潜力。目前的研究结果可能有助于确定克里特岛新的可再生能源系统的规模,该系统需要在2050年之前在新兴的“零碳经济”中产生“无碳能源”。
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