Dampak Keikutsertaan Indonesia di Dalam RCEP Terhadap Volume Perdagangan – Bukti Dari Gravity Model

Abstract

RCEP is a mega Free Trade Agreement which the existence was built with the aim of bridging the diversity of conditions and economic volume of each ASEAN member is very interesting to study whether indeed that goal can be achieved. By using trade panel data from 2001-2016 to Indonesian trading partners from RCEP member countries, and the econometric method, how much influence RCEP influences on Indonesian trade is measured. GDP, and the Population significantly affect to trade, while Distance is significantly negative correlated. The variation of all variables with the coefficient of Good of Fit shows the benefits are ambiguous, with 49.98% Gravity models can explain endogenous variables of trade, while the other 50.02% have other factors outside the model. Institutional Progress, Logistics Effectiveness, Corruption Perceptions, Consistency of Rule-Law, and Competitiveness Index could be those other factors. Further research is needed to locate a better comprehensive model. Thus Indonesia's participation in RCEP if it only relies on Gravity variables, the impact on trade could might increase or otherwise.