Shoot Event Prediction in Soccer Considering Expected Goals Based on Players’ Positions

Abstract

This paper presents a method for shoot event prediction in soccer considering expected goals based on the players’ positions. To quantify players’ and teams’ performance, various ways based on the chance of shoot events have been proposed in recent years for soccer analytics. In soccer, since the players’ positions in soccer change little with respect to the soccer court, it can be difficult to directly introduce the tracking data of players, that is, players’ positions, into the shoot event prediction model. We tackle this problem with expected goals estimated from the field position as the player’s importance. At the end of this paper, we confirm the effectiveness of our method through experiments using actual soccer videos.