Population Growth Similarity in North and East Africa

Abstract

ABSTRACT:World population growth is falling due to declining fertility rates, increase in literacy rate, women labour market participation and the rapid urbanization. Africa is an exception. With the highest rate of population growth, Africa is expected to account for more than half of the world's population growth between 2015 and 2050. We investigate the degree to which population growth and changes in Africa have become more similar over time. The data cover six countries in the North and another six countries in East Africa for the time period 1970-2018. The two sub-samples of countries are heterogeneous but within a group the countries are more similar by culture, religion and values. A population similarity index is computed pairwise both at level changes and growth rates. In addition, fractional integration is used. Population growth is an important issue with regard to the achievement of sustainable development goals. The countries in the two regions are pairwise compared. The population similarity index shows that for most country pairs, changes in population growth and changes between consecutive periods became more similar over time. We find significant differences in the pattern between using growth rates and changes in population. Application of rank-correlation measure shows that correlations between the sample countries indicates a tendency towards reduced population growth, increased similarity and movement towards a sustainable population development. The similarity in population growth between countries is assumed to be a result of tendencies in socioeconomic behaviours and characteristics to become more homogenous and similar leading to demographic convergence. Unlike population, there is no evidence of convergence in fertility and mortality among the countries studied. The results of this study can help policy makers to derive conclusion about the future regional convergence. Regional convergence is important for planning, economic reforms, interstate collaboration, engagement in political, economic and social relations with neighbouring states as well as formation of economic and monetary unions. Investment in education, gender equality, inclusive growth and welfare policies can affect fertility rate and subsequently population growth. Optimal demographic development is important to economic development and very likely ease achievement of the sustainable development goals in Africa.