ARIMA Model for Forecasting COVID-19 in East Java

Abstract

Coronavirus is a group of viruses that can cause disease in both humans and animals. The newly discovered coronavirus triggers COVID-19 disease. COVID-19 is now a pandemic that is emerging in many countries around the world, including Indonesia. Several sectors have been affected as a result of this pandemic, such as medical, economics, government, industry, etc. By using ARIMA model, we try to predict the daily cases of COVID-19 that occur in East Java. We obtained this model with the help of R software. The best model we obtained was the ARIMA model (7,1,7), which we used to predict the next 14 days from November 1, 2020, to November 14, 2020. The results of forecasting obtained by comparing real data with a 99% confidence interval, we obtained that the forecasting results are close to the real data that has occurred until November 14, 2020. This prediction is expected to help various sectors affected by this pandemic, such as government, economy, health especially in East Java.