Revisitando a dinâmica trimestral do investimento no Brasil: 1996-2012

Cláudio H. dos Santos, A. Modenesi, G. Squeff, Lucas Ferraz Vasconcelos, Mônica Mora, Thais Fernandes, Thiago Moraes, Icardo Summa, J. Braga
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引用次数: 22

Abstract

This text discusses the data on and the stylized facts of the dynamics of Brazil´s gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) since 1995. It also presents new econometric specifications for the quarterly dynamics of the Brazilian GFCG in the 1996-2012 years that suggest new causal interpretations to the problem at hand. The data make clear the different dynamics of the GFCF in dwellings and other buildings and structures and in machinery and equipment - and, as a consequence, the crucial role of the latter variable in the dynamics of Brazilian aggregate investment. The econometric specifications, in turn, suggest shocks in the real exchange rate international commodity prices and public investment as underlying causal mechanisms of the quarterly behavior of the Brazilian GFCF.
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回顾巴西投资的季度动态:1996-2012
本文讨论了1995年以来巴西固定资本形成总额(GFCF)动态的数据和风格化事实。它还提出了1996-2012年巴西GFCG季度动态的新计量经济学规范,为手头的问题提供了新的因果解释。这些数据清楚地说明了GFCF在住房和其他建筑物和结构以及在机械和设备方面的不同动态,并因此说明了后者变量在巴西总投资动态中的关键作用。反过来,计量经济学指标表明,实际汇率、国际大宗商品价格和公共投资的冲击是巴西GFCF季度行为的潜在因果机制。
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