Introducing a Fuzzy Cognitive Map for modeling power market auction behavior

Abstract

The power market is becoming more complex as independent small producers are entering it but their energy offerings are often based on alternative sources which may be dependent on transient weather conditions. Power market auction behavior is a typical large-scale system characterized by huge amounts of data and information that have to be taken into consideration to make decisions. Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) offer a method for using the knowledge and experience of domain experts to describe the behavior of a complex system. This paper discusses FCM representation and development, and describes the use of FCM to develop a behavioral model of the system. This paper then presents the soft computing approach of FCM for modeling complex power market behavior. The resulting FCM models a variety of factors that affect individual participant behaviors during power auctions and provides an abstract conceptual model of the interacting entities for a specific case problem.