The Effect of ESG Criteria on Company Valuation: A Quantitative Approach Applied to the O&G Sector

Abstract

The integration of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) criteria implies that they must be explicitly introduced into valuation models and investment decisions. Socially Responsible Investment (SRI) does not take into account this integration, so it is necessary to know the real impact that ESG criteria have on the valuation of actions to carry out effective investment decisions. The approach used is the Value – Drivers Adjustment (VDA) through the Discounted Cash Flow (DFC) method for Shell PLC as one of the most influential O&G companies in the energy transition. The results of the analysis reveal that the impact of ESG criteria on valuation translates into a reduction of 29.11% of its target price. The need for investment and the rising cost of capital explain these result. This results in a more comprehensive valuation method, where ESG criteria are no longer supplementary information and become indirect financial elements.