Correlation Analysis of Stock Market and Fund Market Based on M-Copula-EGARCH-M-GED Model

Ruihua Wang, Hongjun Wang
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Abstract

Abstract In this paper, M-Copula is used to analyze the correlation between Shanghai Composite Index and Shanghai Fund Index. By analyzing the characteristics of the logarithmic yields sequence of two samples, the marginal distribution model is established by using EGARCH-M-GED model. According to the correlation between two logarithmic yields sequence, the M-Copula model is selected to model its correlation structure, and its parameters are estimated by EM algorithm. Because M-Copula combines characteristics of different Copulas, it has more flexible distribution forms and more prominent ability to describe the fat tails and correlation characteristics of data, and more importantly, the effect is better than single Copula.
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基于M-Copula-EGARCH-M-GED模型的股票市场与基金市场相关性分析
摘要本文运用M-Copula分析了上证综合指数与上证基金指数的相关性。通过分析两个样本的对数产量序列特征,采用EGARCH-M-GED模型建立边际分布模型。根据两个对数产量序列之间的相关性,选择M-Copula模型对其相关结构进行建模,并采用EM算法对其参数进行估计。由于M-Copula结合了不同Copula的特点,因此具有更灵活的分布形式和更突出的描述数据肥尾和相关特征的能力,更重要的是效果优于单一Copula。
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