Empirical Cost Estimation for U.S. Navy Ships

Abstract

This article pertains to the development of alternative ship cost modeling methodologies. Most ship cost modeling has been traditionally weight-based. This approach drives the U.S. Navy to select smaller ships that, consequently, require custom-designed shipboard components. This research project is intended to help determine if there is a more accurate way to empirically predict, forecast, and model ship cost. Current and forecasted U.S. Department of Defense budgets require identifying, modeling, and estimating the costs of shipbuilding. Information and data were obtained via publicly available sources and were collected, collated, and used in an integrated risk-based cost and schedule modeling methodology. The objective of this study is to develop a comprehensive cost modeling strategy and approach, and as such, notional data were used. Specifically, we used the Arleigh Burke Class Guided Missile Destroyer DDG 51 Flight I, Flight II, Flight IIA, and Flight III as a basis for the cost and schedule assumptions, but the modeling approach is extensible to any and all other ships within the U.S. Navy. The results will be used to develop recommendations and develop a cost modeling tool on how to implement ship cost forecasts. This example will provide a roadmap for other new ship cost modeling by the U.S. Navy, thereby improving effectiveness and increasing cost savings.