Down-Level Control Based on Level Prediction of Landslide Evolutionary State

Abstract

Accurate prediction and effective control are the key to reducing the impact of landslide disasters. In practice, most of recent studies focus on landslide displacement prediction and control. In this paper, we propose a new control method based on the level prediction of landslide evolution state, namely down-level control. The core components are level predictor and interval predictor in this method. Specially, we first transform the traditional displacement regression prediction problem into a level classification prediction problem by labeling discrete category information for landslide sample points. Then the level predictor based on Multi-task learning-Stacked long-short time memory network (MTL-SLSTM) is established to predict the state of the landslide and judge whether the system needs to be controlled. Finally, we design a safe rainfall interval predictor based on bootstrap method to obtain the safe value of control variation. The effectiveness of the proposed control method is verified on Baishuihe and Shiliushubao landslides. The results show the proposed down-level control method is valid and more intuitive.