Implicit relations between time slots, capacity and real demand in ATFM

Abstract

The motivation of this report is to better understand why there are differences between regulated demand and real demand in ATFM. We analyze past flight data from two different points of view: First, we take a look on the number of aircraft entering sectors. Visualization gives us intuition on regularities in the data. We interpret regulated and real demand as random variables where the only knowledge we have are the realizations in our database. We infer properties of these variables, especially on how they interact with each other. Secondly, we compare differences in declared and flown length and duration. This gives us an image on how accurate flight plan information is on a daily basis. Our main hypothesis is that we analyze data of groups of aircraft rather than on a plane to plane basis because deviations of single aircraft are not independent from the others. We conclude with an outlook on a statistical model of the misbehavior of groups of aircraft dependent on the regulated demand in order to improve current ATFM.