A Study on the Co-movement of Stock Markets between China and the US in Long and Short Term

Li-ru Bai, Yi-Ming Li
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Abstract

The global integration of economics and finance has strengthened the economic ties among all countries, and the cross-border capital flows have become more frequent, magnifying the mutual influence among the global stock markets. After 30 years of development in capital market, China has opened up its stock market, significantly enhancing its connection with the world. This paper explores whether the long-term and short-term relationship of stock markets between China and the US has changed, with the implementation of China's opening-up measures. The results prove that there was no long-term co-movement of stock markets between China and the US before 2014, and the volatility spillover effect was one-way from the US to China. However, after the implementation of the opening-up measures of China, the long-term relationship began to show and the volatility spillover effect became two-way.
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中美股票市场长期与短期联动研究
经济和金融的全球一体化加强了各国之间的经济联系,跨境资本流动更加频繁,放大了全球股票市场之间的相互影响。经过30年的资本市场发展,中国已经开放了股票市场,大大加强了与世界的联系。本文探讨了随着中国对外开放措施的实施,中美股票市场的长期和短期关系是否发生了变化。结果表明,2014年以前中美股市不存在长期的共动,波动溢出效应是单向的,从美国到中国。然而,在中国实施开放措施后,这种长期关系开始显现,波动溢出效应成为双向的。
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