Estimation of Monthly Probability of Conception based on Lindley Conditional Risk of Intercourse

Abstract

Several researchers have tried to study the relationship between timing and frequency of intercourse with the monthly probability of conception based on prospective data. However, in reality, the data on pattern of intercourse and days of ovulation in each woman is hardly available. In that condition, it is imperative to compute the monthly probabilities of conception theoretically. Assuming Lindley distribution for the conditional risk of intercourse (i.e. increasing hazard rate for intercourse), we have tried to calculate the probabilities of all possible coital patterns and associated probabilities of conception on the four days of fertile period. Then, these calculated probabilities are utilized to estimate monthly probability of a conception.