Impact on The Existence of New Toll Road Section Due to Mode Choice Between Transportation Mode Using Modal Split Methods (Case Study: Tulungagung-Surabaya)

Abstract

The Java-trans highway is almost connected from west to the east of Java Island and now, there is a new section that will be built, those are Kertosono-Kediri section and Kediri-Tulungagung section. The Impact from these construction in the future will shorten the travel time. Tulungagung-Surabaya buses which use the highway only take 3-3,5 hours of travel time with route combinations between national and highway roads. This research aims to find the model of mode choice proportion between bus, non-toll bus, cars, and train due to Tulungagung-Surabaya’s highways in 2023. The travel attributes used in this research are travel time and travel cost between bus, non-toll bus, cars, and train. Then, the model could predict the mode choice proportion in the future, after the construction finished. The method for modelling is modal split which uses power function (α) and deterrence function (β). Mode choice model that is used is a modal split with power function (α) with NMAE values 0,5284 which is close to 0. The interpretation of NMAE value is the smaller the value the better the model, because the model would represent the existing condition in which the model could predict future condition