Peter F. Christoffersen, V. Errunza, Kris Jacobs, Xisong Jin
{"title":"Correlation Dynamics and International Diversification Benefits","authors":"Peter F. Christoffersen, V. Errunza, Kris Jacobs, Xisong Jin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2313954","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Forecasting the evolution of security co-movements is critical for asset pricing and portfolio allocation. Hence, we investigate patterns and trends in correlations over time using weekly returns for developed markets (DMs) and emerging markets (EMs) during the period 1973-2012. We show that it is possible to model co-movements for many countries simultaneously using BEKK, DCC, and DECO models. Empirically, we ?find that correlations have significantly trended upward for both DMs and EMs. Based on a time-varying measure of diversification benefit, we ?find that it is not possible in a long-only portfolio to circumvent the increasing correlations by adjusting the portfolio weights over time. However, we do find some evidence that adding EMs to a DM-only portfolio increases diversification benefits.","PeriodicalId":370944,"journal":{"name":"University of Toronto - Rotman School of Management Research Paper Series","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2013-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"97","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"University of Toronto - Rotman School of Management Research Paper Series","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2313954","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 97
Abstract
Forecasting the evolution of security co-movements is critical for asset pricing and portfolio allocation. Hence, we investigate patterns and trends in correlations over time using weekly returns for developed markets (DMs) and emerging markets (EMs) during the period 1973-2012. We show that it is possible to model co-movements for many countries simultaneously using BEKK, DCC, and DECO models. Empirically, we ?find that correlations have significantly trended upward for both DMs and EMs. Based on a time-varying measure of diversification benefit, we ?find that it is not possible in a long-only portfolio to circumvent the increasing correlations by adjusting the portfolio weights over time. However, we do find some evidence that adding EMs to a DM-only portfolio increases diversification benefits.
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